Deuteronomy 18:15

'The Lord our God will raise up a prophet for you from among your brothers, like me' is a verbatim citation of the prophet-like-Moses promise — the christological hinge of the speech.

'Listen to him' from the cloud quotes the Mosaic 'a prophet like me... him you shall heed,' identifying Jesus as the eschatological prophet-like-Moses. High volume (near-verbatim imperative) and total coherence with Moses' presence on the mount.

'The LORD will raise up for you a prophet like me... you shall listen to him' (autou akousesthe). The command 'Listen to him' is verbatim from the prophet-like-Moses promise; appended to the voice it identifies Jesus as the eschatological prophet, the climactic clause of the composite oracle.

'Are you the prophet?' (v.21) draws on Moses' promise that God would raise up 'a prophet like me,' a fixed eschatological category in Second-Temple Judaism. The interrogation triad (Christ/Elijah/the prophet) is built on this expectation. High availability and coherence.

The crowd's acclamation 'This is truly the prophet who comes into the world' (v.14) invokes the promised prophet-like-Moses. The Mosaic feeding miracle triggers a Mosaic-prophet expectation; high Coherence with John's prophet-and-king Christology.

'This is truly the prophet' (v.40) names the eschatological prophet-like-Moses God promised to raise up, 'to him you shall listen.' Booths' Mosaic/wilderness setting and Jesus' Moses-discourse earlier (vv.19-23) make the Deuteronomic prophet the precise referent. High coherence and recurrence of the prophet motif in John (cf. 1:21, 6:14).

Moses promises a prophet like himself whom God will raise up, and commands 'to him you shall listen.' The heavenly 'Listen to him' verbally echoes this command, and the presence of Moses on the mountain makes the prophet-like-Moses identification pointed. Volume and coherence are both strong.

The healed man's verdict 'He is a prophet' invokes the Mosaic promise of a prophet like Moses whom Israel must heed. John develops the prophet-like-Moses Christology, and the sign-working healer fits the criterion of the true prophet; Coherence with John's wider Moses typology is strong.

The alternative guess, 'one of the old prophets has risen,' draws on the Mosaic promise of a raised-up prophet like Moses and broader expectation of an eschatological prophet. Moderate volume; coherent with Luke's prophet Christology, climaxing in the Transfiguration 'listen to him.'

The travelers describe Jesus as 'a prophet mighty in deed and word,' and the exposition 'beginning from Moses' invokes the prophet-like-Moses whom God would raise up and to whom Israel must listen. Luke elsewhere applies this text to Jesus (Acts 3:22; 7:37), making it a likely component of the Mosaic witness here. Coherence and recurrence support medium confidence.

'No prophet has arisen out of Galilee' (v.52) is John's irony against the very prophet-like-Moses expectation (v.40); the Pharisees deny on geographical grounds what Scripture and Jonah (a Galilean prophet) would unsettle. The prophet motif from Deuteronomy frames the dismissal as mistaken. Medium; functions through dramatic irony rather than citation.

The opinion that Jesus is 'one of the prophets' resonates with the promise of a prophet 'like Moses' whom God would raise up; the prophet-like-Moses expectation is part of the matrix the crowd's answers reflect, sharpened by Mark's Moses/wilderness typology in the feedings.

'Saying nothing but what the prophets and Moses said would happen' invokes Moses as a witness to the coming Christ; the Mosaic promise of a prophet 'like me' whom Israel must heed stands behind the appeal to 'Moses' as testifying to the suffering and risen Messiah.

The crowd's identification of Jesus as 'the prophet' (21:11) may echo the promise of a prophet like Moses whom the people must heed.